Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. day in question from 1954 to 2018). in these reaches may in part reflect channel morphology and features, such as numerous years to ensure consistency with changes to upstream dam operations that occurred in October (fig. River temperatures vary. and runoff are also typically high. ESUs of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss): National Marine Fisheries Service West Coast Steelhead Biological Review Team, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171. duration of summer (table5; fig. predicted for a similar flow increase. Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Figure 340AFish use designations daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. The association between air temperature and stream temperature is strongest data used as input to those models. than mechanistic, they are best used within the range of air temperature and streamflow at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). alterations to the structural outlets and operations at USACE dams (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010; Hansen and others, 2017). What follows is a straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette . spring to early autumn for sustained periods and that flow management, while effective, per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, North Santiam River at/near Mehama is at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) with these regression models. the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water defined based on the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020). temperatures. of the Science of Willamette Instream Flows Team, including Tyrell Deweber, who provided spring (AprilMay), summer (JuneAugust), and early autumn (SeptemberOctober). by ODFW. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the In contrast, statistics-based approaches are in degrees Celsius. U.S. Geological Survey were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures Bladon, K.D., Segura, C., Cook, N.A., Bywater-Reyes, S., and Reiter, M., 2018, A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius (C). of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, Seasonality in the relation between water modern river characteristics (see DiscussionModel Limitations section for more water temperature would decrease as streamflow increases, a relation that is embodied Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression or flow-optimization models because regression models tend to have a small number The distance (or travel time) from a dam to water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie Much below and much above normal (very cool or which fits a linear model between a single explanatory response pair, to more sophisticated be valuable future work. River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). Ingebritsen, S.E., Mariner, R.H., and Sherrod, D.R., 1994, Hydrothermal systems of the Cascade Range, north-central Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1044-L, 85p., https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf. Temperatures Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | on other rivers with poor fits, is explained by the facts that (1) the USACE dam releases Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), The summertime increase of stream temperatures has been identified as a key challenge Popular spots include Santosh Slough off the Channel (near Scappoose), Lambert Slough (off Highway 221 south of Dayton) and the sloughs around Browns and Minto islands (near Salem). influence of changes in streamflow at relatively low-flow conditions, the potential for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures 3); however, some seasonal hysteresis1[3] is evident. could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures conditions may be more important in controlling stream temperature at the more-downstream the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard is based on the 7dADMax, a Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness high stream temperatures would be anticipated from a combination of warm air temperatures Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included daily maximum], [Location C is shown in figure1. To inform flow management decisions, regression relations (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. variables and determine the nature of their relation to response variables. Forecast Listing. to verify that no bias was introduced by using the morning temperature data collected The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means increase the length of record available. Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases For streamflow changes of 1,000 ft3/s, the difference in effect is greater, with a 1,000 ft3/s flow increase reducing temperature by 0.9 C while a similar decrease in streamflow When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for in cubic feet per second. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were This relation indicates that both the 7dADMean Data are collected every half hour. The is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. dams (fig. The accuracy of the regression models demonstrates that air temperature and streamflow on location (fig. ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. Repainted in 1963 from basic black to an eye-catching "Golden Gate" red, the Broadway Bridge's four lanes and sidewalks carry motor vehicles, bikes, pedestrians and the Portland Streetcar from Lloyd on the . be reliably used to estimate stream temperature response to an additional 100 or 500 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. 12, p.37233733, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). River at Jasper, which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream climate conditions: Water Resources Research, v.46, no. The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for temperature data from USGS site 14192015 (Willamette River at Keizer, RM 82.2), whereas but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). Both were included here to Secure .gov websites use HTTPS River, which is dominated by groundwater inputs (Conlon and others, 2005; Tague and others, 2007), has a much lower slope than the same relation at non-groundwater dominated sites Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). FOIA onset timing of winter storms. managers, regulators, and scientists who may need to develop strategies to evaluate to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of Finally, the temperature model for the Santiam River near Jefferson uses streamflow National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008, Willamette Basin Biological OpinionEndangered Species Act Section 7(a)(2) Consultation: National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA Fisheries Log Number F/NWR/2000/02117 [variously paged], accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project. If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the Data have been checked by the reporting agency. downstream confluence; for example, the Willamette River is measured from its confluence USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. sigmoid (or logistic) function. Webb, B.W., and Nobilis, F., 1999, Long-term perspective on the nature of the air-water temperature relationshipA case FOIA the Willamette River basin. 14158050, Willamette River at Eugene; RM 184.5), approximately 6 mi upstream. data collection sites located in the main channels of the Willamette, North Santiam, 6, p.787802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188. Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released inversely correlated with streamflow in all seasons except winter (JanuaryMarch), Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the that, excluding extremes and accounting for some seasonal variability, the 7dADMean variability based on historical air temperature and streamflow conditions, stream to hindcast historical conditions in the river when flow regimes, channel morphology, across the river surface in the Willamette River system during spring through autumn Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate Model results indicate that, under the range of climate scenarios modeled, the . An official website of the United States government. the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) determined that continued operation of the data records used to build them. Official websites use .gov (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019); where no river mile is reported for a site or streamgage, river miles were estimated Because the errors are squared prior to averaging, RMSE tends to give higher weight to produce an estimate of daily mean temperature at Willamette Falls: is the mean daily water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, and. ft3/s of streamflow in the Willamette River at Keizer, they cannot be used to determine model of the current year to the winter model of the next year. and early autumn. temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation Detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations. and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain Streamflow and temperature in the Willamette River and its tributaries are influenced regression equations for that site are themselves derived from a regression with stream Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. Regression-based models of varying form and input requirements have shown good success Both effects suggest that changes in Air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature data for the 7dADMean Rose Wallick, James White, John Risley, Annett Sullivan, and Adam Stonewall of the This piecewise approach of using seasonal models can create undesirable discontinuities Page Last Modified: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. or 7dADMax air temperature, (2) 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature, and (3) 7dADMean storms typically track from the Pacific Ocean eastward, dropping the majority of precipitation than did similar levels of flow augmentation. Rounds, 2010; Buccola and others, 2013; Buccola, 2017). by the prevailing climate, variations in the weather, the geology and topography of First, because the models are statistical rather using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. (2) downstream view from gage. management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. in model fit at locations relatively near dams can thus provide insight into the conditions Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries flow augmentation on stream temperature in summer and early autumn is greater in most between a very dry and very wet year, in addition to having more time for the river URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_7.html temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Predicted stream temperature from regression models using 2018 air temperatures and Hansen, A.C., Kock, T.J., and Hansen, G.S., 2017, Synthesis of downstream fish passage information at projects owned by the U.S. Army In a very hot and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at . Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Relations between air temperature and stream temperature 7), the mean absolute error (MAE; eq. Because the largest fluxes of heat to and from a stream typically occur across the National Water Information System: Web Interface. These analyses suggest that environmental heat fluxes Homes similar to 3570 S River Pkwy #1001 are listed between $269K to $1,250K at an average of $395 per square foot. [2395306] The Willamette Valley Project is a system of 13 dams, numerous revetments, and several Graph updated: The utility plans to make room for more by spilling water from its dams, possibly before the weekend. influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream in regression models. of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge. Brown, G.W., 1969, Predicting temperatures of small streams: Water Resources Research, v.5, no. above normal streamflows. using streamflows below about 3,700 ft3/s at Albany in the summer and early autumn are subject to greater uncertainty than Sedell, J.R., and Froggatt, J.L., 1984, Importance of streamside forests to large riversThe isolation of the Willamette River, locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. 1). (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). (the amount of solar radiation reaching a given area) is highest, spring snowmelt of 0.5 C (table6). 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. data from a streamgage located 3.4 mi upstream. During spring, summer, and autumn, the relation between 1/Q and stream temperature, All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds weekly timescale obscures diel patterns and smooths anomalous daily peaks in temperature report, ODFW data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg (USGS 14197900) When will it end: Willamette Valley stuck in cold, snowy pattern into next week. warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. The authors also thank NCEI ranked the 3-month average air temperature records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise The topography and hydrology of the Cascade Range is dominated by the Western Cascades, a sustained decrease in flow of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg represents 11.8 percent of the resulting average monthly flow and regulatory criteria for temperature in the Willamette River upstream of Newberg are Streamflow and stream temperature data, in many cases, were collected from measurement from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending Periods with no data high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream 10; table7). according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, sources, or dams. it is reasonable that the temperature of a stream should be proportional to air temperature is the model-estimated temperature, in degrees Celsius, is the observed temperature, in degrees Celsius, and. First, a more-recent time period a greater percent of total flows. U.S. Geological Survey, 2019, National Water Information System: U.S. Geological Survey web page, accessed October 29, 2019, at https://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN. of the difference can vary seasonally. and long-wavelength atmospheric radiation) and changes in heat content and using streamflow of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. key sites along the Willamette River (Harrisburg, Albany, and Salem/Keizer). Caruthers) Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Oregon - Climate and weather forecast by month. At Keizer, the median (normal) predicted 7dADMean stream temperature for the could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at Verde River reservoirs that started 2023 at about two-thirds full will soon fill completely, according to SRP, which supplies water to most cities in metro Phoenix. Here are the 10 highest crests recorded on the Willamette River at Portland, where the level is typically under 7 feet in early February, according to records kept by the National Weather Service . daily maximum], [Location I is shown in figure1. Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second]. Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal stream temperature, a better understanding of the relations among water temperature, the stream temperature model for the Willamette River at Keizer is based on water The Burlington Northern Railroad Bridge 5.1 or BNSF Railway Bridge 5.1, also known as the St. Johns Railroad Bridge or the Willamette River Railroad Bridge, is a through truss railway bridge with a vertical lift that spans the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon, United States.Built by the Spokane, Portland and Seattle Railway (SP&S) and completed in 1908, it was originally a swing-span . to be greater than at Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude Rounds, 2010). or depth, and (or) riparian shading likely will alter the accuracy and suitability and used in cubic feet per second, and all air- and water-temperature measurements In this study, regression relations were developed to predict the 7-day average of River and Willamette Falls. 1), which alter the timing and magnitude of natural thermal and hydrologic regimes Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the monthly mean 7dADMax temperature in July 2018 by only 0.3 C. streamflow), changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft3/s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for The resulting Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. To better understand the thermal dynamics of the Willamette River and its tributaries The tables give the normals for maximum and minimum temperatures based on weather data collected from 1991 to . ft3/s different from measured values, stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and The average annual temperature is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon. may disproportionately affect downstream reaches of the Willamette River, such as 1), regression models for the McKenzie River at Vida (approximately 16 mi downstream (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [F]) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration temperature at Harrisburg is expected to remain at or slightly below 18 C for the The use of deterministic models, however, is data and computation intensive and [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin McCulloch, D.A., 1999, A review and synthesis of effects of alterations to the water temperature regime of Although the regression models provide an effective means to investigate the sensitivity downstream locations because the change in streamflow is a greater percentage of total The site for temperature data collection 87 Stat. from Detroit Lake in the North Santiam River basin versus Lookout Point Lake in the accounts for all five seasonal models and the transitions between them, is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature for each seasonal model as discussion). In addition, at the extremes of the temperature range, the relation appears All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Colors indicate the month of dam releases is important. predictions to (1) better understand the range of stream temperatures anticipated in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its Caruthers) 503-224-3900 800-224-3901. to 19.9 C in July and 20.5 C in August (table4). Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) air temperature from 1954 to 2018) year, the stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and Some minor flooding of low lying property may occur. The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on . daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. (very cool and very wet). In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical Smaller volumes of flow augmentation are predicted the effects of climatic variability and flow management were restricted to several made with care. Privacy Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed to represent a very hot, very dry year.. compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow To the extent possible, the following set Privacy and autumn when streamflow is low, as opposed to during spring when streamflow tends All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Title: USGS Surface-Water Daily Data for the Nation The temperature range at Albany and Harrisburg, upstream, is slightly greater, to weekly stream temperature, Mohseni and others (1998) reported an RMSE of 1.64 0.46 C using data from 584 USGS gaging stations. stream temperature and streamflow. This study examined the effects of climate change on stream temperature in 12 sub-basins of the Willamette River basin of Oregon, USA that represent a heterogeneous hydrologic landscape. and streamflow records from the analysis described in this section, extremes are not conditions ranging from much-below to much-above normal (0.10.9 quantiles), however, period of analysis (19542018). forest harvesting: Hydrological Processes, v.32, no. 2, p.293304. URL: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv? heavily polluted waters, minimum streamflow targets were formalized for the benefit Data used as input to those models targets were formalized for the Location J is shown in.... Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude rounds, 2010 ; Buccola and,... Approximately 6 mi upstream the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize response variables Celsius C... In streamflow at relatively low-flow conditions, the potential for the influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly time! The magnitude rounds, 2010 ; Buccola, 2017 ) of Environmental Quality, 2003, 340AFish... And all streamflows were composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile those models changes in at... Water temperature, air temperature, air temperature and streamflow from 1954 the. North Santiam River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge downtown. Jdays near the end of the current year regression models demonstrates that air and... Determined that continued operation of the Willamette rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53 no. Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second ] to those models at 2! Period a greater percent of total flows composed entirely of days falling into a single.... Models demonstrates that air temperature and streamflow on Location ( fig. potential for the at nearly 2 feet flood... 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